Palmetto Bowl
15 questions a day per visitor. Please don't include personal information.
Every game in the series, a model that picks the next one, and answers to the questions fans argue about. One finding keeps showing up: in this rivalry, the host loses. Hosts are 1–7 since 2017.
The 2026 pick
- Vegas line
- Not posted
- Elo
- CLEM 1541 · SC 1699
- Host penalty
- Built in
- Records
- CLEM 3–2 · SC 3–3
Snapshot from Oct 17, 2026, through Week 7.
The model starts from each team's Elo rating, adds normal home field, then subtracts the rivalry host penalty it learned from 2007 to 2019 games. How it works and how it has done.
Every game since 2007
Bars above the line are Clemson wins, below are South Carolina wins. The tick is the margin the betting line expected. A bar that stops short of its tick means the favorite did not cover. Tap or hover a season for details.
Home field, compared
Across college football the host wins 59% of the time. In rivalry games that falls to 53%, and the betting line has not caught up: rivalry hosts finish 2.3 points worse than the spread on average. This series is an extreme case.
Host wins
FBS vs. FBS, true home games, 2007 to 2026. Line marks 50%.
Road team covers
Games with a betting line, 2013 to 2026, pushes left out. A bettor needs 52.4% to break even.